Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
